US prediction markets · independent coverage
Make sense of prediction markets.
Compare US prediction market platforms, understand event contracts, track major markets and find the best place to trade your hunch.
Featured comparison
Top US prediction market platforms
Updated weekly. Ratings reflect regulation, market breadth, fees, liquidity and user experience.
- US access
- ● Available
- Fees
- Up to 2% per trade
- US access
- ● Available
- Fees
- 1 cent per contract
- US access
- ● Available
- Fees
- Free
- US access
- ● Restricted
- Fees
- 0% trading fees
#05
Manifold MarketsPlay-money prediction market platform with real communities and calibration data.
- US access
- ● Available
- Fees
- Free (play-money)
- US access
- ● Available
- Fees
- Standard DFS rake
#07
Interactive Brokers Forecast ContractsCFTC-regulated event contracts inside the IBKR trading platform.
- US access
- ● Available
- Fees
- $0.02–$0.10 per contract
- US access
- ● Available
- Fees
- Low per-contract fees
Best for
Find the right platform for how you trade
Kalshi
The first CFTC-regulated event contract exchange in the United States.
ForecastEx
An exchange-grade forecast market owned by Interactive Brokers.
Kalshi
The first CFTC-regulated event contract exchange in the United States.
Kalshi
The first CFTC-regulated event contract exchange in the United States.
Kalshi
The first CFTC-regulated event contract exchange in the United States.
Polymarket
The largest crypto-settled prediction market for global events.
Markets
Trending event categories
From elections to inflation prints, here's where event contract volume is concentrated right now.
Politics
Elections, legislation, confirmation votes and policy decisions.
Sports
Event contracts on major sports outcomes — distinct from sportsbook wagering.
Economy
Macroeconomic releases, central bank decisions and recession risk.
Crypto
Token price milestones, protocol events and regulatory outcomes.
AI
Model launches, benchmark milestones and AI policy events.
Culture
Awards, box office, music charts and cultural milestones.
Weather
Temperature, storms, hurricanes and climate thresholds.
Financial events
Earnings, IPOs, M&A and credit events without trading the underlying security.
Start here
Learn the basics, fast.
Six short reads that cover everything from how event contracts settle to where they're legal in the United States.
Beginner
What is a prediction market?
A plain-English guide to how prediction markets price the probability of real-world events.
7 min read
Beginner
How event contracts work
Yes/No contracts, settlement, premiums and what "a price of 62 cents" actually means.
8 min read
Legal
Are prediction markets legal in the US?
The CFTC, the states, and the live legal questions shaping access in 2025.
9 min read
Comparison
Prediction markets vs sportsbooks: the vig gap explained
Sportsbooks bake a 4.5–10% vigorish into every line. Regulated prediction markets typically charge under 2%. Here's what that means for your edge.
9 min read
Comparison
Prediction markets vs options trading
Binary event contracts share DNA with options. Here's where they overlap and where they diverge.
6 min read
Beginner
How to read prediction market odds
Reading a 47-cent Yes price, the spread, the order book and the implied probability.
5 min read
State legality
Where prediction markets stand in your state
Tap any state for a plain-language summary of current legal status, platform availability and what to know before signing up.
HunchMarkets Daily
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Platform updates, regulatory shifts and the event contract trends professional traders are watching. One short email, every weekday morning.
Ready to place your first hunch?
Start with a regulated US exchange. We'll point you to the platform that fits how you trade.